A flip doesn’t work because the rehab looks affordable
It works when the price you pay leaves room for everything else: the repairs, the loan, the months you hold it, the agent, the closing costs and the profit you need. Miss any one of them and you just bought yourself a very stressful job with no paycheck at the end.
Good house flipping software connects the walkthrough to the price you can pay, then follows the same numbers through the renovation: the estimate before you buy, the budget once you own it, and what you actually spent. This guide walks through that with our own Windsor, CT flip, plus the number most flippers forget to put a clock on. We make the tools at the end of this guide, EstiMate and Apex Vivus, and there is a short overview of EstiMate there.
Our Windsor flip: the plan, and what actually happened
Here is a real one. We bought a house in Windsor, CT for $71,000. Before buying, the plan said:
| The plan | What happened | |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase | $71,000 | $71,000 |
| Sale price | $199,000 (planned value after repairs) | $255,000 |
| Renovation, buying, holding and selling costs | $79,000 ($60,000 rehab + about $19,000 costs) | $94,000 |
| Profit | $49,000 | $90,000 |
The house sold for $56,000 more than the plan said it would. Everything between the purchase and the profit came to $94,000, $15,000 more than planned. The profit landed at $90,000 instead of $49,000.
That is the point of writing the plan down line by line before you buy: afterwards, you can see exactly where the deal beat the plan and where it cost more, and the next estimate gets better. The whole story, from the lead to the sale, is in the Windsor flip series.
Profit needs a clock
Here is the number most flip calculators leave out: time. A $49,000 profit sounds great. Over a year, it’s about $4,000 a month for all that risk and work. Over three months, it’s more than $16,000 a month, and you can do it again.
Windsor took about six months, so its $90,000 works out to roughly $15,000 a month. The plan’s $49,000 over the same six months would have been about $8,167 a month.
And time doesn’t just spread the profit thinner, it eats it. Every month you hold the house costs money. Your holding costs are what the house costs you every month you own it: loan interest, taxes, insurance and utilities. Take an illustrative flip planned at $45,000 profit over four months, with $1,500 a month of holding costs:
| If it takes | Profit | Profit per month |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | $46,500 | $15,500 |
| 4 months | $45,000 | $11,250 |
| 6 months | $42,000 | $7,000 |
| 9 months | $37,500 | $4,167 |
| 12 months | $33,000 | $2,750 |
Same house, same rehab, same sale price. Twelve months instead of four turns a $11,250-a-month deal into $2,750 a month. So put the timeline in the plan, and check what happens if the contractor is six weeks late, because sometimes they are.
Build the scope before you defend the price
Your offer is only as good as your repair number, and your repair number is only as good as its lines. Walk the house room by room, photograph the conditions, and turn them into lines with quantities, not a single “needs about $60k.” Review every AI suggestion as a draft, check that the same repair didn’t get counted twice across photos, and add the things a photo can’t show.
Then pick the finish your buyer will actually pay for. Look at the renovated comps behind your value after repairs: their kitchens and bathrooms tell you what “renovated” means on that street. A flipper has to match them. Overbuilding past them is money you won’t get back, and a premium finish does not automatically raise the sale price; that needs its own evidence from the comps.
How to build a scope line by line, and what photos can’t show you, is in rehab estimating software.
Your maximum offer is a result, not a rule of thumb
Work backwards from the sale. Start with the value after repairs, subtract the repairs, every cost of buying, holding, financing and selling, and the profit you need. What is left is the most you can pay, under those assumptions. Illustrative: a $350,000 sale, $65,000 of repairs, $42,000 of costs and a $45,000 profit target leaves a $198,000 maximum offer.
Now stress it. If repairs come in at $75,000, the maximum drops to $188,000. If the sale price also comes in $15,000 lower, it drops to $173,000. If your offer was $195,000, you just found out before you bought, not after. Include the loan details too: points, interest, draw fees and how long you will carry it. Leaving them out turns a real profit projection into a hopeful one.
Estimate, budget, actual: three numbers for every line
Once you own the house, the estimate becomes a budget, and the budget gets spent. Track all three on every line:
- Estimate. What you thought it would cost when you made the offer.
- Budget. What it should cost now that you have real contractor bids.
- Actual. What you paid.
Compare contractor bids against your scope, line by line, not just the totals. A cheaper bid often leaves out disposal, prep or a required repair, and you find out when the second invoice arrives. When the work changes mid-job, write it down as a change order, and carry approved changes back into the budget: added work moves the profit even if the sale price stays the same.
The ten-minute flip review before you make an offer
- Value.Are the comps real closed sales of renovated houses like this one?
- Repairs.Line by line, with the required repairs in, and the unknowns priced as a range.
- Finish.Does it match the renovated comps, not your own taste?
- Costs.Buying, holding, financing and selling, each on its own line.
- Time.How many months, and what happens to the profit if it takes three more?
- Profit per month.Is it worth your time at the realistic timeline?
Pass all six and make the offer. Fail one and fix the number before you sign. Let’s go make some money!
How EstiMate handles this
Here is how EstiMate covers the numbers in this guide. The CRM side of a flip, from the lead to the contract, runs in Apex Vivus.
- What you can pay. Walk the property once and work backwards from the profit you need to what you can afford to pay.
- Your numbers, once. Set how you buy (costs, holding, profit targets) once, and every new property starts with them loaded.
- Your people’s numbers. Your lender, agent, title company and contractor change the costs, and the maximum offer changes with them.
- Change one assumption. Move the timeline, the repairs or the sale price, and the whole deal moves with it.
- Which version works. Compare versions of the deal side by side instead of forcing one to work.
Here are those screens, working. Tap them, or press a “try me” flag where you see one:
EstiMate is on Android today, with iPhone coming soon. Try it free for a week from your first property.
Walk the property once. Know what you can afford to pay.
412 Waverly Ave, Providence RI
Teach EstiMate how you buy once. Stop re-entering it on every deal.
Deal assumptions
Your MAO changes when the people doing the deal change.
1234 Oak Street
INVESTORwith this crew$182,790
Change one assumption. Watch the whole deal move with it.
Don't force the deal to work. See which version actually does.
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Questions
What is the best software for house flipping?
The one that connects your walkthrough to the price you can pay, puts a timeline on the profit, and carries the same numbers through the renovation as estimate, budget and actual.
How do I calculate profit per month on a flip?
Divide the profit by the months from purchase to sale. Our Windsor flip made $90,000 in about six months, roughly $15,000 a month.
Do premium finishes increase the sale price?
Not automatically. A premium finish is a cost; any higher sale price needs its own evidence from renovated comps.
What costs do flippers forget?
Holding costs that grow every month, loan points and draw fees, selling costs, and the repairs a photo couldn’t show.
Is the 70% rule good enough?
It is a quick screen, not an offer. Work backwards from the real sale value, repairs, costs, timeline and profit for the house in front of you.
What is the difference between an estimate and a budget?
The estimate is what you expected when you made the offer; the budget is what it should cost once you have real bids. Track both, and the actual.
